Re: UNITED AIR LINES TO LAY OFF 950 PILOTS

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From: gatt <gatt@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>

>What's a CFII doing suggesting that four different energy analysts don't 
>know how economics and market financing works?

OK, I trade futures for a living and currently hold contracts out to 2010.
 I AM suggesting that THOSE four different energy analysts don't 
know how economics and market financing works.

I'll tell you, right now, that speculation in energy-futures markets has
NO
long term effect. 
Volatility is increased. Price swings are larger. But for every
speculation
induced upswing in price, is a speculation induced downswing. An
average trend line will quite accurately represent a "real" dollar value.

There are two factors that are causing the rise in oil prices.
1) Supply/Demand  
   a) More people want the oil. Production is staying
roughly the same. Think China and India.
   b) It's costing more to extract oil from wells that are producing
less and less. (You do know that the Saudis are starting to use water
injection on NEW wells. Don't you? And you do know the significance
of that. Right?)

2) The US dollar is going in the ****er.

- From a US perspective, the blame lies in ONLY one place......The US
government.

>I guess guys like me put the United States of America ahead of the the 
>almighty oil industry.

Very patriotic.
But also VERY misguided.

The "almighty oil industry" keeps your plane flying.
The GOVERNMENT keeps it expensive.

>Banks fail.

So do governments!
And ours is well on the way to failure.
I dare say that it probably will in our lifetime if we can get the idiots.
running the show, out of Wa****ngton in the near future. 




Once we thought the earth was flat--
What of that?
It was just as globos then
Under believing men
As our later folks have found it,
By success in running round it;
What we think may guide our acts,
But it does not alter facts.
- -- Charlotte Perkins Gilman

  

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